ABI: Ultra-Mobile Device Sales $12.5B by 2015

By June 08, 2010

At any tech conference you go to these days ('these days' being the last two months) between 10 and 20 percent of attendees will be using an iPad as a primary computing device. Early adopters, sure, but the iPad has captured the p

ublic’s imagination more than any device in recent memory, much more than the iPhone upon its initial release.

ABI predicts that the category the iPad belongs to, Ultra-Mobile Devices (UMDs), will reach $12.5 billion by 2015, and that worldwide UMD adoption will increase 55 per year.

Also in the category are netbooks, smartbooks and mobile internet devices (MIDs).

At Steve Jobs’ keynote yesterday at WWDC, the Apple CEO announced that Apple was selling an iPad once every three seconds. Apple also announced that the iPad has already passed 2 million sales since its release two months ago. This is certain to accelerate now that the device is available internationally.

The iPad definitely looks like it will trend better than initial reports suggested, while netbooks will probably be the most volatile, as analysts have gone back and forth on what the long-term health of the market is. In May, ABI predicted that netbook sales would ‘boom’ in 2010, rising from 36.3 million sales in 2009 to 58 million in 2010.

At the same time, we’ve been receiving negative indicators about the netbook market. Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty said that the iPad could more than double netbooks’ first-year performance of 7.6 million sales. Huberty also predicted that the Apple tablet will cannibalize the netbook market, pointing to a 13 percent year-over-year drop in netbook sales as an indicator of that market’s impending implosion.

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