Cisco Says: Blogging Today, Clogging Tomorrow

By June 17, 2008

San Jose-based network and communication technology merchant Cisco Systems started Monday off with a prediction that Internet traffic would increase by 46 percent from 2007 to 2012. The result of such a surge, Gigaom added, would be an as yet unseen annual bandwidth of approximately 522 exabytes. Cisco’s observations are particularly a propos in light of the possibility of Internet commodification announced by Times Warner, AT&T and Comcast through CNBC on Sunday. The companies warned they would commence ad hoc charging based on usage rather than based on a universal plan set for all customers.

So a traffic increase also means large profit margins for service providers, who are, no doubt, keeping vigilant eyes on skyrocketing usage.

Cisco also released a series of projected statistics.

It claimed that while Global Internet Protocol traffic was lower than seven exabytes per month in 2007, it would reach up to 44 exabytes by 2012.

The attention Cisco has lavished on the trend could be apt, partly based on the fact that if global IP was five exabytes in 2002, come 2012 it would have increased by 100 times.

Cisco estimated that from 2008 to 2012, Mobile data traffic would double each year, with the U.S. surpassing Japan in 2009.

It also postulated that in 2012 Internet video traffic would be roughly 400 times the numbers U.S. traffic reached—in sum—in 2000.

Gigaom contributed to these conjectures with a few of its own.

It stated that part of the spurt could be the result of excited usage in new economies such as those in Russia, China, India, Eastern Europe and Brazil.

India, it continued, is the 8th largest Internet utilizing country in the world, housing 41 million users. China has surpassed the U.S., now filling the role as the largest market for mobile and broadband. Latin America’s numbers, however, are the ones growing fastest.

So even if reality doesn’t end up conforming exactly to that of which Cisco foretells, in the coming years, the numbers are sure to look interesting.

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