Gartner and Forrester have revised their projections for 2009 global IT sales. Both firms changed what they initially projected to be slim market growth to a decline worse than after the dotcom bust in 2001. “The speed and severity of the response by businesses and consumers alike to these economic circumstances will result in an IT market slowdown in 2009 that will be worse than the 2.1 percent decline in IT spending in 2001 when the Internet investment bubble burst,” said Gartner head of global forecasting Richard Gordon. Gartner projects a decline of 3.8 percent in technology spending, while Forrester estimates a 3.1 percent
Gartner expects total IT sales this year to total $3.2 trillion, down from last year’s $3.4 trillion.
"IT vendors should plan for business and consumer spending to be curtailed during 2009 and for a slow, prolonged recovery during 2010," said Gordon.
Forrester’s previous projection forecast a 1.6 percent growth in 2009 IT spending. Gartner’s previous estimate was 2.2 percent growth.
Both firms believe that the biggest drop will be in PC sales. Gartner expects these sales to decline by 9.2 percent in 2009. The only market Gartner expects to grow is software, with a boost of just 0.3 percent.
Garter predicts sales will have modest growth of more than two percent in 2010 and increase to five percent in 2011. Forrester expects the economy to rebound in late 2009 and projects strong growth in IT sales for 2010.