Newspaper ad revenue fell 28 percent in Q1 2009 and suffered a loss of $2.6 billion year-over-year. Not surprising, but big numbers all the same. Advertising is struggling all around – globally and across all mediums it grew only one percent in 2008, and it’s expected to decline 6 to 7 percent in 2009 – but one place it’s still growing is mobile. Juniper estimates that global mobile advertising will be reach $6 billion by 2014, growing 34 percent yearly.
“Indeed, it is possible that the recession actually represents an opportunity for mobile; in that brands will increasingly be seeking to transfer spend to targeted, measurable media,” wrote the report’s author, Windsor Holden, principal analyst at Juniper.
In the past, SMS has been the main platform for mobile advertising, but in 2009 it will be exceeded by mobile internet adspend. Juniper predicts that mobile internet spending will peak in 2011 “before falling back . . . as other channels emerge,” Holden wrote.
Juniper expects Personal Messaging advertising to be one of the more significant “other channels,” growing 64 percent yearly. The firm also forecasts significant growth for idle-screen and MMS-based advertising by 2014.
One key factor limiting mobile advertising’s growth is that companies still do not trust it as a viable advertising medium.
“Regardless of mobile's advantages – its personal nature, the facility for highly targeted advertising – advertisers will not commit more budget until they perceive that the audience for their advertisements has reached a critical mass," Holden said.
Overall global advertising spending was $500 billion in 2008, and total mobile adspend was $1.3 billion.